
At the beginning of September the analytical agency "AUTOSTAT" published the updated forecast of development of the Russian car market. Experts look at consumer activity and prospects of recovery of the sales level more optimistically.
"Revival of the Russian car market proceeds. Rate of sales growth in the automotive sector surpassed the most courageous expectations. Firstly, the recycling program worked successfully, secondly, the pent-up demand appeared, supported with consumer optimism of those Russians for whom excitements and uncertainty of the crisis period remained far behind",
the report of agency "AUTOSTAT" says.
Experts see two base scenarios of development of the Russian market. First (optimistic) assumes, that no financial storm will touch the Russian economy in the near future. “The airbag” of the population in the form of liquidity saved up on accounts, under influence of decrease in rates under contributions and depreciation will flow in the expensive goods, including cars. In this case this year about 1.75 million new cars (without LCV segment) will be sold in the Russian market that is by 22% over the last year"s indexes. Thus the figure in the forecast could be still more as demand advances offer a little. However cars are not enough in outlets now.
According to this scenario in 2011 the sales level of new cars will exceed 2 million cars and in 2013 will come nearer to the record level of 2008 (2.6-2.8 million units). If there are no cataclysms in the Russian economy then in 2014 more than 3 million cars can be realized in home market and Russia will catch up with the leading European car market of Germany.
The pessimistic scenario considers macroeconomic risk which provides delay of rates of recovery of economic and reduction of prices for power resources. As growth of economy has not accepted steady character so “rolling-up” of measures of the state stimulation of economy will make negative impact in general as well as on the car market. In this case the forecast for 2010 provides the market volume in 1.65 million cars. In 2011 dynamics will make only 6-7% up to 1.75 million cars and the level in 2 million will be reached only in 2012.
Sergey Tselikov, the director of the agency "AUTOSTAT" says that in any case, the main tendency - essential increase of the share of foreign cars of the Russian assembly - is very visible. "So, if last year they provided less than a quarter of the home market then this year it is expected that the share of this segment will grow up to 34-35% of the market. By 2012 a little more than 40% of the market will fall on the share of foreign cars assembled in Russia and by 2014 they will occupy almost half (46-48%) from the total realization volume of new cars", the expert says.